The Australian winter crop is in the ground. What it turns into now depends on winter rainfall, spring temperatures, and whether growers are prepared to spend on fertiliser at current prices.
The national picture
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasts winter crop production to fall 21 per cent to 54.5 million tonnes in 2026-27. That is 12 per cent below the five-year average, but still 4 per cent above the ten-year average and the seventh largest winter crop on record. Planted area is down 7 per cent to 23.6 million hectares.
State by state
Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria had a much better start to the season than the eastern states, with average to well above average rainfall from February to April. Northern New South Wales and southern Queensland did not, and persistent dry conditions cut the area planted there.
| State | 2026-27 forecast | Change on last year |
| Western Australia | 21.5 Mt | −20.9% |
| New South Wales | 11.7 Mt | −36.6% |
| Victoria | 9.7 Mt | −3.6% |
| South Australia | 9.1 Mt | +0.3% |
| Queensland | 2.4 Mt | −38.4% |
| Australia | 54.5 Mt | −20.7% |
South Australia is the only state forecast to lift, at 9.1 million tonnes and 3.1 per cent above its five-year average. Victoria holds close to last season. New South Wales and Queensland carry the national decline almost entirely between them, with New South Wales canola forecast down 34 per cent to 1.05 million tonnes after dry conditions closed the ideal planting window.
Western Australia in detail
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) has revised its 2026-27 crop area estimate up to 9.42 million hectares, and its July crop report carries the first production estimate for the season at 22.7 million tonnes. That is well below last season’s record of 27.35 million tonnes, and about a million tonnes above the ABARES forecast for the state, which was issued a month earlier.
GIWA report author Michael Lamond has released the estimate with a caution that variance could run to plus or minus 20 per cent. Forecasts of a drier, hotter Spring have been strengthening and crop potential could turn down quickly if they prove correct. The WA harvest outlook has dropped by 1 million tonnes in the last fortnight and may drop a further million if rain is not received in the next few weeks.
Rainfall and input costs
The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range outlook reinforces the caution. August to October rainfall is likely to be below average, with a 60 to 80 per cent chance, across most of the South West Land Division. ABARES reported a similar picture nationally in June, with a 60 to 80 per cent chance of below average winter rainfall across cropping regions in every mainland grain state.
Soil moisture across the southern growing regions was favourable at planting, which reduces reliance on winter rainfall for establishment. It does not remove the need for follow-up falls.
The other variable is fertiliser. Fuel and fertiliser prices have risen sharply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and while growers are expected to have had what they needed at sowing, ABARES has flagged uncertainty over whether they will buy urea at current prices for July and August top-dressing. A crop can be established and still fall short of its potential if the yield is not chased through winter.
What it means for storage
A large planted area guarantees significant intake even on a modest yield outcome and the combination of an advanced crop and a drier spring outlook compresses the window before harvest pressure arrives. Grain storage and bunker site preparation decisions made in August will be made under more uncertainty than usual.
Sources: GIWA Crop Report, July 2026; ABARES Australian Crop Report, June 2026; Bureau of Meteorology long-range forecasts.
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